Auto Insights Newsletter | April 2022

The average age of vehicles in South Africa is rising

The average age of a vehicle on South Africa’s roads is steadily increasing as relatively fewer new vehicles have been sold over the last five years.

Other than the new vehicle sales bubbles between 2005 and 2008 and then again between 2012 and 2015, when markets rebounded from the 2008/09 financial crisis, the new vehicle sales market has been relatively constrained, particularly in the aftermath of the lockdowns due to the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, resulting in the rising average age of vehicles.

The average age of passenger vehicles is currently 10 years and six months, which is fourteen months older than the average age of 9 years and four months seen in 2014 and 2015.

The average age of all vehicles on South African roads is also 10 years and six months, significantly more than the 9 years and six months realised between 2014 and 2016.

Average age of a vehicle on the SA roads

The domestic new vehicle sales market is important in terms of calculating the average age of vehicles on the road, as this is the “replacement stock” for those vehicles that leave the vehicle population.

A burgeoning new vehicle market will see the average age come down, whereas a struggling new vehicle market will see the average age push out.

Our local market has enjoyed two bubbles over the last twenty years, but the vehicles bought during these windows are ageing, and new vehicle sales have not kept up because of both economic and other pressures. The net effect has been a steadily increasing average age of a vehicle on local roads.

However, the market recovery which began in late 2020 and has continued to accelerate into 2022, should see the growth in the average vehicle age plateau in 2023, before potentially even starting to dip in 2024.

Passenger new vehicle sales vs average age of Passenger car on the road

Total new vehicle sales vs average age of vehicles on the road