Property Newsletter | December 2021
Winners and losers in South Africa’s property market in 2021
Mid value to Luxury residential property recovers, Affordable struggles
Transfer numbers increased in 2021 compared to 2020, reversing five years of consecutive decline. Although Affordable housing transfers fell for the sixth consecutive year, Mid value, High value and Luxury all moved forward positively from the lockdown lows of 2020.
Despite the drop in numbers, the value of transfers has reached a six year high at nearly R279b well up on R225b last year and the previous best of R244b in 2018. Each of the value bands also recorded their best numbers for the last six years.
Volume of transfers by value band
Total purchase value of transfers has reached a six year high
There were marginally fewer first time buyers in 2021
(to 106 417 from 106 617 in 2020) but significantly it was first time buyers in the Affordable value band who were most affected by the pandemic and tough economic conditions as purchases dropped from 37 353 in 2020 to just 31 780 this year – and that is well short of the 46 995 in pre-pandemic 2019.
However, there were more first time buyers in the Mid, High and Luxury value bands.
Despite the reduced number of first time buyers, they spent more than ever on their houses – R75.6b compared to R66b in 2020.
Commercial property still struggling
There was a slight increase in Commercial property transactions, although the sector has not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels recorded in 2019. The value of transactions is down on 2020 though, with Commercial property at R35b (2020: R36b), Retail the same as 2020 at R15b, Industrial at R12b (2020: R13b) and Office R9b from R12b the year before.
Total number of transactions by general commercial type
Total value of transactions by general commercial type
Wealthier shoppers go online as mall visits drop to 80% of pre-Covid levels
Visits to shopping malls have stabilised at around 80% of where they were in January 2020, before the pandemic struck.
Mall visits as a percentage of January 2020 baseline
The pandemic has changed the amount of time shoppers spend at shopping malls. Short and long visits have been replaced by “mid-length”, probably because shoppers avoid “impulse stops” as well as restaurant, cinema, and other leisure-activitybased visits which are likely to last longer than an hour. Dwell times mirror the severity of lockdown restrictions: shoppers spend less time at malls during periods of greater restriction and more time when restrictions ease.
Average dwell time
Visitors from wealthier areas have cut their visits to malls, suggesting an increase in online shopping and greater ‘stockpiling’ of groceries.
Mall visits by income class
Residential crime drops (and fires burn less too)
Residential crime has been dropping in the country’s major metros – except Mbombela (Nelspruit).
Estimated number of residential crimes per 1000 households
Vehicle theft has been rising in Tshwane (Pretoria) and Mbombela but is more or less steady elsewhere.
Estimated vehicle thefts per 1000 households
Estimated number of fires per year
The estimated number of fires has been dropping since 2018, and especially in 2021. This is particularly true of Tshwane, where the estimated number of fires has dropped from 591 to 158.
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