SUV bodyshape leading new
vehicle sales demand

Despite sales slump the SUV bodyshape grows in popularity

New vehicle sales in March 2024 (44 008 units) were 12.2% down on March 2023, according to naamsa, and 1.7% down when compared to February 2024.

Passenger vehicle sales dropped by 15.5% year-on-year in March to 26 691 units, while Light Commercial Vehicles sales dropped 6.4%, reaching 14 555 units, when compared with March 2023.

New vehicle sales: January 2022 - March 2024

Overall sales for the first quarter of 2024 were 5.6% lower than for the same period in 2023, and 4% below sales for the same window in 2022. naamsa reported a total of 130 798 units sold between January and March, of which around 84.9% represented dealer sales. Passenger vehicle sales were down 8.1% year-on-year for the three months, while LCV sales declined 1% compared to Q1 of 2023. The car rental industry accounted for an estimated 12.2% of new Passenger vehicle sales in the January - March window, lower than the 12.8% in 2023 and 13.9% in 2022.

Passenger and Light Commercial new vehicle sales (January to March)

Lightstone expects limited market growth in 2024, despite continued pressures throughout the macroeconomic environment, with GDP barely expected to grow at 1% and the Rand steadying against major global currencies. Headline consumer inflation is projected to continue within the Reserve Bank’s 3% - 6% target range, with the possibility of interest rates cuts only likely late in the year.

New vehicle sales for 2024 are anticipated to reach around 536 500 units, of which 504 000 are Light Vehicles (Passenger and Light Commercial). Overall, new vehicle sales are expected to increase by around 1% by end 2024, up on the 0.5% growth in 2023.

New vehicle sales - 2018 to 2024

Market observations - Bodyshape

The SUV bodyshape (which includes the likes of the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro, Haval Jolion and Toyota Corolla Cross) was the best-selling Light Vehicle (Passenger & LCV markets) bodyshape in South Africa in the first three months of 2024, with 36 400 new units sold, of which 87.9% were Dealer sales and 7.4% reported through the Rental channel.

Sales for the Crossover segment for the three months dipped 9.3% from the same window in 2023, and made up 29.5% of all Light Vehicle sales for the January-March window, slightly less than the 30.5% recorded in 2023.

The second-best performing bodyshape, in terms of volume, was the 5-door Hatch (examples include Suzuki Swift, Toyota Starlet and VW Polo Vivo) with 31 616 units sold between January and March. This segment was also down (by 3.4%) on the comparable period in 2023.

Sales for the Extended Cab Pick-up bodyshape, which currently includes the Ford Ranger, Isuzu D-Max and the Toyota Hilux, grew by 39.4% year-on-year in the January-March period from 2023, which in turn was 0.3% lower on the bodyshape total for 2022. This makes the Extended Cab bodyshape the best performing Light Vehicle segment in terms of sales growth, despite not being one of the bigger segments. Over the first three months of 2024, the Extended Cab bodyshape made up 2.5% of all Light Vehicle sales, up from the 1.7% market share this bodyshape enjoyed over the same window in 2023.

The second most improved bodyshape for year-on-year growth over the first quarter of 2024 was the Panel Van bodyshape (which included Suzuki EECO, Toyota Quantum and Volkswagen Caddy), with sales climbing 36.8% from a year earlier.

Light Vehicle Bodyshapes - share of Light Vehicle market (January to March)

Worth noting is the performance of the Sub One-Ton bodyshape, which enjoyed its best first quarter in terms of market share since 2019. Yet with Nissan stopping production of the NP200, the future of this category is uncertain with no obvious successor moving in to take over.

Hybrid & Electric vehicle Sales

New Hybrid & Electric Passenger vehicle sales (which includes Traditional Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles) for the firstthree months of 2024 numbered 3 029 units, up, significantly, by 82% on the same period in 2023, which in turn had jumped by 18.8% for the same period in 2022. These vehicles accounted for 3.6% of the total Passenger market in the first quarter of 2024.

Hybrid & Electric Vehicle share of Passenger sales (January to March)

Traditional Hybrid vehicles continued to contribute the majority of these sales with an 85% share of the sub-segment over the first three months of 2024, with Battery Electric vehicles making up 10% of sales and Plug-in Hybrid vehicles responsible for 5%.