Declining new vehicle sales leads to less – and older – vehicles on the road

New vehicle sales over the last decade have struggled to reach the levels enjoyed between 2005 and 2008, despite a bit of respite between 2012 and 2015. And the relatively lower levels of sales have been further impacted in the last two years by the measures taken by the government in response to Covid-19.

This declining growth in the domestic vehicle population (or parc) bottomed out in 2020.

New vehicle sales vs total parc growth

In addition to lower levels of growth in the vehicle parc, there has been a significant shift in the age of the vehicles. In 2012, 60% of the vehicle population was between 0 and 10 years old, and by 2014 this share had increased to 62%.

At the same stages in 2012 and 2014, the 11 to 20-year-old band made up 33% and 32% of the parc respectively. In the years since then, these shares have changed to the point where currently the sub-10-year age band only makes up 53% of the vehicle population, while the 11 to 20 band enjoys a 42% share.

All vehicles - age band share of parc last 10 years

When viewing the Passenger market in isolation, the movements in the market are very similar to those demonstrated by the overall market because Passenger vehicles make up around two thirds of the overall vehicle population in South Africa, a share which hasn’t deviated much over the past decade.

Passenger vehicles’ share of parc over last 10 years

If one were to compare the actual Passenger age band volumes for the two-year windows from 2012 to present, it becomes easier to track the performance of each band relative to the other years. While the volume of vehicles in the 21 to 30-year band has remained relatively constant, the 11 to 20-year group has grown steadily over the past 10 years, assisted by the ageing of the vehicles purchased in the 2005 to 2008 bubble. The 6 to 10-year band has fluctuated as the vehicles from both bubbles move through this age group, while the 0 to 5-year-old vehicles reached a peak in 2016 at the end of the 2012 to 2015 bubble, and has been steadily shrinking over the course of the intervening years.

Passenger cars - age band split of parc last 10 years

With the market growth expected in 2022, the youngest Passenger band should begin to recover in the next few years, once again allowing for a decrease in the average age of vehicles on the South African roads.